For my first attempt at projecting the winner of the Election, I believe I did quite good.
I predicted Obama would be the overall Electoral College winner, but missed Florida for a total of 50/51 for the Presidential Election. For the Senate, I predicted 32/33 races correctly, including Montana, but predicted the wrong winner for the North Dakota US Senate Seat.
Here are my final #Election-2012 Predictions. My model is simple: I get the polls for Real Clear Politics, and calculate two weighted averages (one is Registered Voters and Likely Voters sample, the other is a Likely Voter only average) based on sample size of each poll if polling is available. I also factor in what the most recent polls show the leader is as due to me using all RV and all LV polls available, the averages do not necessarily catch up. If polling is not available, then I use historical trends. The polls I used were available on Real Clear #Politics as of November 4, 2012. It is possible I missed some that have been added since then. I tried to upload my files to Google Drive, but I was not being successful. If I get them to upload, I'll put the links on this site.
Nebraska (5 EV): Romney, possible for Obama to get 1 EV due to split-by Congressional district but unlikely (Polling Average)
Nevada (6 EV): Obama (Polling Average) New Hampshire (4 EV): Obama (Polling Averages, most recent polls as of 11/4 had Obama leading) New York (29 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) North Carolina (15 EV): Toss-Up/Romney (Polling Averages, most recent polls have Romney leading but some ties) North Dakota (3 EV): Romney (Polling Averages) Ohio (18 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) Oklahoma (7 EV): Romney (Polling Averages) Oregon (7 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) Pennsylvania (20 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) Rhode Island (4 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) South Carolina (9 EV): Romney (Polling Averages) South Dakota (3 EV): Romney (10/10 most recent Presidential Elections to Republican, polling) Texas (38 EV): Romney (9/10 most recent Presidential Elections to Republican, polling averages) Utah (6 EV): Romney (10/10 most recent Presidential Elections to Republican, polling average) Vermont (3 EV): Obama (5/10 most recent Presidential Elections to Democrat, polling average) Virginia (13 EV): Toss-Up/Obama(Polling Averages, most recent polls seem to be trending back to Obama) Washington (12 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) West Virginia (5 EV): Romney (Polling Averages) Wisconsin (10 EV): Obama (Polling Averages) Wyoming (3 EV): Romney (10/10 most recent Presidential Elections to Republican)
#Senate Predictions (Where polling was available, I used the same method as my Presidential Predictions. If polling was not available, I used the Real Clear Politics Rating):
51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 Independents with at least one Independent Caucusing with the Democrats (D=51+1 I = 52, R=47, I=1)
Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) over Richard Carmona (D) California: Dianne Feinstein (D) over Elizabeth Emken (R) Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) over Linda McMahon (R)Actual Democrat pick-up Delaware: Tom Carper (D) over Kevin Wade (R) Florida: Bill Nelson (D) over Connie Mack (R) Hawaii: Mazie Hirono (D) over Linda Lingle (R) Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) over Richard "Pregnancies from rape are a gift from God" Mourdock (R) Democratic Pick-Up Maine: Angus King (I) over Charlie Summers (R) and Cynthia Dill (D) Independent Pick-Up Maryland: Ben Cardin (D) over Dan Bongino (R) and Rob Sobhani (I) Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) over Scott Brown (R) Democratic Pick-Up Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) over Pete Hoekstra (R) Minnesota: Amy Klobuchar (D) over Kurt Bills (R) Mississippi: Roger Wicker (R) over Albert Gore (D---no, not that one) Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) over Todd "Legitimate Rape" Akin Democratic Hold Montana : Toss-Up/Jon Tester (D) over Denny Rehberg (R) Democratic Hold Nebraska:Deb Fischer (R) over Bob Kerrey (D) Republican Pick-Up Nevada: Dean Heller (R) over Shelley Berkley (D) New Jersey: Robert Menendez (R) over Joe Kyrillos (R) New Mexico: Martin Heinrich (D) over Heather Wilson (R) New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) over Wendy Long (R) North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D) Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) over Josh Mandel (R) Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) over Tom Smith (R) Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) over Barry Hinckley (R) Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) over Mark Clayton (D) Texas: Ted Cruz (R) over Paul Sadler (D) Utah: Orrin Hatch (R) over Scott Howell (D) Vermont: Bernie Sanders (I) over John MacGovern (R) Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) over Michael Baumgartner (R) West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) over John Raese (R) Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) over Tommy Thompson (R) Wyoming: John Barrasso (R) over Tim Chestnut (D)
After going through and updating my updated polling averages calculated by weighting the state-by-state polling data found on Real Clear Politics, I am now projecting the #Democrats will have 50 seats in the United States #Senate, the #Republicans will have 48 Seats, and #Independents will hold two seats with at least one caucusing with the Democrats. However, #Montana is interesting as polling seems to be going back and forth between the Democrat, EJon-Tester, and the Republican #Denny-Rehberg. As the election gets closer and closer, I may move Montana from Republican to Democrat even though Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight is still projecting a higher chance of a Republican win. In #Massachusetts, Democrat #Elizabeth-Warren has pulled ahead of Republican #Scott-Brown, and Wisconsin seems to be a tight race between Democrat #Tammy-Baldwin and Republican #Tommy-Thompson.